If you are shopping for a home in San Antonio, you have probably heard agents talk about “months of inventory.” It sounds technical, but it is one of the simplest ways to understand how competitive the market feels right now. When you know what the number means, you can set the right expectations, time your search, and craft smarter offers.
In this guide, you will learn what months of inventory is, how to calculate it, and how to use it to your advantage across Bexar County neighborhoods and price ranges. You will also get practical steps to track inventory like a pro and clear strategies for different market conditions. Let’s dive in.
What months of inventory means
Months of inventory (MOI) is an estimate of how long it would take to sell all homes currently on the market if no new listings came online and sales continued at the current pace. It is a quick snapshot of supply versus demand.
- Lower MOI means tight supply and more buyer competition.
- Higher MOI means more choices and more negotiating room for buyers.
Here is the most common way to calculate it:
- MOI = Active listings at month-end ÷ Closed sales during that month.
For example, if there are 1,200 active listings at the end of the month and 300 homes closed that month, the market would have 4 months of inventory. This is a simple, hypothetical example to show the math.
You might also see a smoothed version that uses average monthly sales over 3 or 12 months to reduce seasonal noise. Analysts sometimes reference the absorption rate, which is just monthly sales divided by active listings. In that case, MOI is the inverse of absorption.
MOI thresholds and what they mean
Industry guidelines help you read MOI at a glance:
- Under 3 months: Often a seller’s market.
- Around 3 to 6 months: Often a balanced market.
- Over 6 months: Often a buyer’s market.
These are guidelines. Interest rates, new construction, and neighborhood-level demand can shift the feel of the market even at the same MOI.
Why MOI matters in San Antonio
San Antonio’s market is shaped by several local factors that influence MOI across Bexar County.
- Population and job growth draw buyers into the region because of relative affordability.
- Joint Base San Antonio relocations add cyclical demand.
- New construction in suburban areas feeds supply, especially in certain price bands.
- Mortgage rates affect affordability and can loosen or tighten the market quickly.
MOI can also vary widely by location and price tier. Central city areas and entry-level price points often move differently than higher-priced or peripheral submarkets. Single-family homes can show one pattern while condos or townhomes show another.
What MOI tells you about the buyer experience:
- Low MOI: Expect faster time to contract, multiple offers, and fewer price reductions. You might see escalation clauses and appraisal gap strategies.
- Moderate MOI: Negotiations on price and terms are common, but well-priced homes can still move quickly.
- High MOI: More listings sit longer, price reductions appear more often, and buyers can request credits or extended timelines.
How to calculate MOI for your search
You can get a quick read on your target area with a simple calculation.
- Ask your agent for the latest month-end active listings and the number of closed sales for the month in your neighborhood and price range.
- Compute MOI by dividing active listings by closed sales.
- For a steadier view, use a 3-month rolling average of monthly sales.
For example, if you are focused on a $350,000 to $450,000 price band in northeast Bexar County, compare active listings and closed sales for only that range. This is important because MOI can look very different by price tier, even within the same ZIP code.
How to track MOI in Bexar County
Make MOI part of your routine if you plan to buy in the next few months.
- Check local market reports each month from the San Antonio Board of Realtors. These reports track county-level trends.
- Ask your agent to pull MLS stats for your exact search area and price range, including active listings and closed sales.
- Track a 3-month rolling MOI to smooth out seasonality. Spring is usually busier than winter.
- Pair MOI with other indicators like new listings, pending sales, days on market, and the list-to-sale price ratio.
Tip: Some consumer real estate sites count inventory differently than the local MLS. Use MLS and SABOR as your primary sources when accuracy matters.
Buyer strategies by MOI
Use the current MOI in your target area to guide your approach. Your financing, timeline, and risk comfort should shape your plan.
Low MOI: Compete with confidence
- Get fully pre-approved, not just prequalified, so you can act quickly.
- Line up a local agent who watches the MLS and can move on new listings right away.
- Consider stronger earnest money or an escalation clause if your budget allows.
- Shorten contingencies where it makes sense, such as a tighter inspection window. Protect your interests by understanding the risks before waiving anything.
- Plan for possible appraisal gaps. Know how much cash you can bring if the appraisal comes in low.
Moderate MOI: Balance speed and negotiation
- Use recent comparable sales to build a fair offer and expect normal back-and-forth on price and terms.
- Keep standard contingencies in place, but be responsive on timing.
- Ask for seller concessions when appropriate, like closing cost credits or small repairs.
- Stay ready to move fast on well-priced homes.
High MOI: Negotiate strategically
- Shop broadly and compare multiple homes. You can be selective on features and location.
- Negotiate on price and ask for credits or repairs during the option period.
- Request seller-paid closing costs or rate buydowns when the numbers allow.
- Take the time you need for inspections and appraisal.
Cross-scenario financial planning
- Interest rates matter. If rates are rising or volatile, consider a rate lock once you are under contract. If rates fall, your options could improve.
- If you plan to offer above list in a tight market, set aside reserves to cover a potential appraisal gap.
- Explore new construction alongside resale. Builder incentives vary by season and subdivision, and inventory dynamics can differ from the resale market.
Reading MOI across San Antonio neighborhoods
Neighborhoods within Bexar County can show different inventory patterns. Areas closer to major job centers often behave differently from developing suburbs. Entry-level price points can move quickly when affordability draws more buyers, while luxury tiers may carry more months of supply at times.
If you are targeting specific parts of the city, ask for MOI by neighborhood and price band. A three-bedroom home near central amenities may attract faster offers than a similar home farther out, depending on timing and features. This is why a county average is helpful, but a micro-market view is better when you are writing offers.
Limitations of MOI
MOI is a snapshot, not a forecast. It does not capture off-market homes, private sales, or the pipeline of new construction that is about to list. Different MLS rules about what is counted as active or pending can shift the numbers. Investor activity and financing differences also influence outcomes without showing up directly in MOI.
To build a fuller picture, pair MOI with trends in days on market, price reductions, pending sales, and building permits. Tracking these together over 12 to 24 months gives you a better sense of trend direction and seasonality.
A simple tracking plan you can follow
- Define your target: price range, property type, and 2 to 3 priority neighborhoods.
- Each month, record month-end active listings and closed sales from MLS stats for your target.
- Calculate MOI and track a 3-month rolling average.
- Note days on market, list-to-sale price ratios, and new listings as context.
- Adjust your offer strategy based on the most recent 1 to 2 months of trend data.
Keeping this log takes 10 minutes a month and helps you make confident, timely decisions.
Put MOI to work for your move
When you understand months of inventory, you can time your search, decide how quickly to act, and negotiate with clarity. Whether you are relocating for work, moving up for more space, or looking at new construction in a growing suburb, MOI gives you a grounded read on the market’s balance of power.
If you want neighborhood-level MOI for your exact search and price point, reach out for a quick consult. Our team tracks MLS data across Bexar County and translates it into a simple plan for timing, touring, and offers. You bring the goals, and we bring the local numbers and strategy.
Ready to map your search around the current inventory? Connect with Lifestyle Design Realty for tailored, neighborhood-specific guidance.
FAQs
What is months of inventory in home buying?
- Months of inventory estimates how long the current active listings would take to sell at today’s sales pace if no new homes came to market. It shows supply versus demand.
How do I calculate MOI for my neighborhood?
- Divide month-end active listings by the number of closed sales that month for your exact area and price range. A 3-month average of sales gives a steadier result.
What MOI is a buyer’s market in San Antonio?
- As a general guideline, over 6 months of inventory often favors buyers, 3 to 6 months is more balanced, and under 3 months often favors sellers.
How often should I check MOI while shopping?
- Monthly is fine for county trends. If you are actively touring, check your neighborhood and price tier every 2 to 4 weeks.
Why does MOI vary across Bexar County?
- Demand and supply differ by location, price tier, and property type. Central or entry-level areas often move differently than higher-priced or outlying submarkets.
Does MOI predict price changes?
- MOI shows market pressure, not exact price moves. Sustained low MOI often pushes prices up, while higher MOI can precede stabilization or declines.
Should I use consumer sites or MLS data for MOI?
- Use local MLS and San Antonio Board of Realtors data for the most accurate counts. Consumer sites are helpful for context but may define inventory differently.
How do builders affect inventory in Bexar County?
- Builder pipelines add supply, especially in growing suburbs. When demand is strong, that inventory can be absorbed quickly; when demand cools, MOI can rise.
